Russiа is still not in shape to resume its offensive in the Donbas region. Time works for us. We set up a kind of "conveyor" for them. They do not succeed to compensate the constant losses in personnel to renew units. That’s because they are a constant object of our fire. In some areas, non-contact fighting of limited duration is being fought, and in the east the fighting is heavy, with the use of the entire arsenal of heavy weapons.

Data shows that another brigade of Islander tactical missiles has been deployed. This will let the Russians to strike practically the entire territory of Ukraine.

For now, they retain superiority over the Armed Forces of Ukraine only in the ability to launch missile strikes from depth and in aviation operations.

Currently the Russians are conducting a covert mobilization with the aim of gathering about 60,000 trained reservists, mainly from Krasnodar, Perm, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Kalmykia. The Ingush and Dagestanis, the Kabardino-Balkarians, and the peoples of the Caucasus in general have a positive attitude towards military service. They have been actively involved in all the conflicts in which Russia has been involved so far. The Dagestanis represent the ethnic group with the greatest losses in personnel, at the current stage of the war. The dead from the major centres of Moscow, Sankt Petersburg among the lower ranks are few.

As for the possibility of activating of centrifugal tendencies in the Russian Federation after the war, we see the "utilization" of a significant number of active servicemen precisely from the republics that will seek independence from Moscow.

Here we can add the religious component. Caucasians are predominantly Muslim.

Nobody will fight directly for Ukraine. We are fighting alone, for ourselves. And, in addition, for NATO.

If today the goal of the West is to replace the ruling elite in Russia, we can assume that it is obvious that the war is being fought on “two fronts”. For us this is a war for national liberation. And the West with our hands is solving its own geopolitical goals of eliminating Putin's dictatorial regime and eliminating Russia as a player in the geopolitical arena.

At the heart of every war lies the redistribution of the spheres of influence or of energy resources. Our particular case concerns the Yuzhev shale gas field. (It is considered one of the largest in the Eurasian continent. It covers part of the territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with an area of about 8,000 square kilometres. Its reserves are estimated to be at least 3.6 trillion cubic metres.) Whoever owns this field can dictate gas prices, at least in Europe.

Mariupol diverts significant powers of the enemy. The more Mariupol is standing still, the easier it will be to fight in the Donbas. There is a direct correlation. If the defense of Mariupol falls, the whole fight power of the enemy will "pour" over our forces in the Donbas. This will significantly increase the density of Russian troops and their offensive potential, which must not be allowed to happen.

In this situation Kherson is essential for both Mariupol and Donbas. If we are able to go on the offensive there, the enemy will be forced to transfer forces to that section from both Mariupol and Donbas.

And Izyum is the key to the military success throughout the campaign. They want with the offensive from Izyum to go to the rear and encircle our group in the Donbas on the Lugansk direction. If we do not allow this, we can consider that we have diverted the course of the military campaign in our favour.

(Аs of day 41 of the war)